“My argument is that the West, especially the United States, is principally responsible for this disaster. But no American policymaker is going to acknowledge that line of argument. So they will say that the Russians are responsible.”

John Mearsheimer (February 2022)

March 3 2022 — In order to come up with the optimum plan for ending the crisis, it is essential to know what caused the crisis. Regarding the all-important question of causes, the key issue is whether Russia or the West bears primary responsibility. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today

“Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the post cold-war era. Such a decision may be expected . . . to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”

A Fateful Error

Diplomat-historian George F. Kennan

(Feb. 5, 1997)

UPDATE (March 5 2022) — In February 2008, William Burns — Then US ambassador in Moscow and now CIA Director — wrote the following cable: NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES.

Part of the cable reads:

“Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region.

Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests.

Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war.

In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”

One should never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but, as Einstein argued, don’t rule out malice! 

END of UPDATE

“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.”

Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower (February 1951)

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.

Professor Mearsheimer predicted the current crisis a decade ago. Today, he assesses the causes of the the crisis, the best way to end it, and its consequences for all of the main actors.

In a recent conference [The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis] Professor Mearsheimer explains clearly, in very simple terms, why the West — Not the Russians — is principally responsible for this tragedy.

This of course is not the conventional wisdom in the United States and Europe. But serious intellectuals such Henry Kissinger and Noam Chomsky fully agree with this assessment of the situation.

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” And the facts are very clear…

The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis

REFERENCES

A Fateful Error — George F. Kennan (NYT, Feb. 5, 1997)

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine — The New Yorker

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The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis [John Mearsheimer]

The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis [UPDATE — William Burns 2008 Cable : “NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES”]