“We will leave no stone unturned to get to the bottom of what and who is behind these incidents.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
(October 27 2021)
October 28 2021 — On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken formally announced the establishment of a new cyber bureau at the State Department to help tackle cyber and emerging technology diplomatic issues. Blinken also made a cryptic reference to the ‘Havana Syndrome pandemic’ which seems to indicate that he may make an important announcement very soon, possibly today. Follow us on twitter: @Intel_Today
RELATED POST: On This Day — And thus a new syndrome was born… [Havana Syndrome – October 3 2017]
“The ‘Havana Syndrome’ health cases are gut-wrenching. As the U.S. government gathers information, there’s growing speculation that the attackers may be Russians. But there’s no proof. It’s an assault case with no hard evidence — other than the suffering of the victims.
These mysterious attacks are a policymaker’s nightmare. You can’t accuse another country of warlike assaults without solid facts; the Iraqi WMD fiasco taught a generation of intelligence analysts that lesson. But if you don’t hold rogue actors accountable, how do you deter future attacks? That’s the conundrum facing the Biden administration.”
David Ignatius — Washington Post (Oct. 29 2021)
UPDATE (October 29 2021) — We are still waiting to hear from Secretary Blinken about “what and who is behind these incidents.” Meanwhile…
David Ignatius just wrote a very interesting opinion piece [Dealing with ‘Havana Syndrome’ is a policymaker’s nightmare] in the Washington Post.
Over the last five years, I have tried to make it clear that microwave spying is NOT science fiction.
Indeed, microwave spying is a well established tool of espionage. And yes, the U. S. agencies (CIA and NSA) use this technique to collect intelligence. They have done so for the last 50 years!
RELATED POST: Microwave Spying — Leon Theremin & “The Thing” [UPDATE : CIA Microwave Cavities on display at the Crypto Museum]
RELATED POST: Havana Syndrome — What Are the Frequencies Used by US Intel for Microwave Spying? [2019]
RELATED POST: Havana Syndrome — US Scientist Criticizes ICNIRP Refusal to Reassess Cell Phone Radiation Exposure Guidelines
For the very first time since the beginning of the ‘Havana Syndrome’ saga, a major newspaper admits both facts clearly and unambiguously.
“Microwaves, lasers and other directed energy systems are hardly new in the spy business. Intelligence collectors (including U.S. agencies) have bathed target locations with radio waves or beams, and then tried to tune the vibrations of particular objects — a pane of window glass, say, or the filament in a lightbulb — to produce what amounts to an invisible microphone. The CIA sometimes describes this as “ubiquitous technical surveillance,” or UTS.”
David Ignatius makes another important point that I have tried to emphasize over the years.
“With its freewheeling network of mercenaries, hackers and thugs, Russia is an obvious suspect. But that’s not the same thing as having proof. So, what should the Biden administration do about these anomalous health incidents to make sure they stop, when it lacks the evidence to support a potential military confrontation?
The first task is to keep investigating. That’s what CIA Director William J. Burns is doing aggressively, assigning the probe to one of the targeters who found al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden a decade ago. While this investigation continues, it might also make sense to draw Russia into a discussion about “rules of the road” for directed energy systems.
Like hypersonic missiles, space weapons and cyberattacks, these directed energy systems will be weapons of the future, regardless of what emerges in the investigation of Havana Syndrome. They’re double-edged swords — as dangerous to Russia as to America.
Message to the Kremlin: We’re not making any allegations. But we need to talk.”
We have come a long way… Do you remember the days when ‘microwave spying’ was the thing of late night comedy shows? [Did Obama Use a Microwave to Spy on Trump? — Jimmy Kimmel Live]
END of UPDATE
“If the facts are confirmed and if the effects are indeed caused by a physical device, I find the microwave explanation far more likely than a sonic attack.”
US Spies & the Havana Syndrome
INTEL TODAY (October 3 2017)
Near the end of the speech [@50:46 — See transcripts below], Secretary Blinken made the following comment:
“We will leave no stone unturned to get to the bottom of what and who is
behind these incidents and I will have more to say about that in the next day.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken gives a speech on Modernizing American diplomacy
“Is Russia using directed-energy attacks on U.S. diplomats and spies overseas? This depends very much on whom you read on the subject. Having read up on it a little bit, I will confess to being somewhat skeptical that it is real — and yet, I have little confidence in my skepticism.”
Daniel W. Drezner — Professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University
What’s the deal with Havana Syndrome? — Washington Post (Oct. 27 2021)
“What and who is behind these incidents.”
Both the Washington Post and the New York Times are rather skeptical about the ‘Havana Syndrome’ pandemic.
RELATED POST: Havana Syndrome — Exclusive NBC News Investigation [Why you should be skeptical]
“Uncertainty rears its ugly head again in foreign affairs,” writes Daniel W. Drezner in a piece posted by the Washington Post yesterday.
According to Politico’s Andrew Desiderio and Lara Seligman, U.S. intelligence officials are showing greater confidence about the what and who of Havana Syndrome: “The U.S. government’s investigation into the mysterious illnesses impacting American personnel overseas and at home is turning up new evidence that the symptoms are the result of directed-energy attacks.” That is the what.
As for the who: “Lawmakers are also growing increasingly confident that Russia or another hostile foreign government is behind the suspected attacks, based on regular briefings from administration officials — although there is still no smoking gun linking the incidents to Moscow.”
Well, it sure seems like that’s that! Except that maybe it is not.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” writes Spencer Bokat-Lindell in an piece published by the New York Times yesterday. [Is ‘Havana Syndrome’ an ‘Act of War’ or ‘Mass Hysteria’?]
Despite the lack of conclusive evidence that U.S. officials were victims of “targeted attacks,” much less of secret microwave weapons deployed by a foreign power, many intelligence officials and journalists seem increasingly convinced of the narrative. The latest big story on the “Havana syndrome,” published in the media outlet Puck News, led with the following admission from the author, the national security reporter Julia Ioffe: “I always suspected that these illnesses were the product of deliberate attacks and that the Russian government was behind them — it was exactly the kind of weird thing they’d be both into and capable of.”
Americans should be wary of how the “Havana syndrome” is being framed in this way as a warrant for retaliatory action, Natalie Shure argues in The New Republic.
Perhaps most shocking, in Shure’s view, an anonymous member of the intelligence community quoted in Ioffe’s story seemed to call for punishing the alleged culprits, alluding to intelligence of “medium confidence” that the alleged culprits were Russian.
“Of course, we also invaded Iraq with ‘medium confidence,’” Shure writes. “If ‘Havana syndrome’ has mercifully yet to be used to agitate for war as concretely as the imaginary nukes of Iraq were, it’s clearly been seized on by a national security apparatus formidably expanded since 9/11 — and if more people don’t come to their senses, harm will surely result.”
Meanwhile… Yesterday, during a House Intelligence Committee hearing, Rep. Eric Swalwell [Dem – California] pressed Intelligence Community leaders to acknowledge that the unexplained health incidents known as “Havana syndrome” are the result of targeted attacks.
“Considering that we are not doing this to our people, they are not doing this to themselves, public reports suggest they are happening in an escalating fashion worldwide, can we stop calling them incidents and call them attacks?”
CIA Director William J. Burns didn’t answer directly, but agreed that “real harm is being done to real people and we take each report very seriously.”
Swalwell called for an effort to hunt down those behind the suspected attacks, on par with the Intelligence Community’s effort to hunt down Osama bin Laden.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner [Dem – Va.] said that the lack of information about the alleged Havana Syndrome is very problematic.
“The fact that we still don’t know for sure who did it and how these attacks were carried out is very, very problematic, to say the least. We are, in a bipartisan way, absolutely on top of this.”
“I think that the administration, when they reach their conclusion, will lay that out. The challenge will be, when they lay it out — particularly if it’s a nation-state that originates this activity — what we do then is going to pose one of the most challenging policy choices for this administration to date.”
During the Annual Intelligence and National Security Summit (Sept. 14 2021), CIA Deputy Director David Cohen stated that:
“It’s real. It’s affecting our officers. It’s affecting others around the community, in government, and we’re going to figure it out.”
I have great doubt that the CIA (or the ODNI) will release a declassified report. I am looking forward to hearing what Secretary of State Antony Blinken may have to say about “What and who is behind these incidents.” Stay tuned!
“The ODNI and the CIA are well aware that some people may soon be asking why the U.S. spends $85 billion annually on an intelligence community that cannot answer a basic question. General Hayden is right. You gotta get something for your money.”
Intel Today (Oct. 13 2021)
REFERENCES
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken gives a speech on Modernizing American diplomacy — Automatic transcripts:
50:46
our embassy teams around the world are
50:47
still facing a dangerous pandemic
50:50
too many of our people have been
50:51
affected by the anomalous health
50:52
incidents that we continue to
50:54
investigate
50:56
i’ve met with colleagues around the
50:57
world who’ve been struck by these health
50:59
incidents
51:00
i’m deeply moved by what they’ve been
51:02
through
51:04
we will not spare any effort
51:06
to protect our people to make sure they
51:08
have access to the best care
51:10
and we will leave no stone unturned to
51:13
get to the bottom of what and who is
51:15
behind these incidents
51:16
and i’ll have more to say about that in
51:18
the next day
51:20
these incidents remind us that
51:22
being a diplomat
51:24
can be dangerous
51:26
and we must do everything we can to keep
51:28
our people
51:29
and their families safe.
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Havana Syndrome — Secretary of State Antony Blinken to make an important announcement… Or not.
Intel Today 