“Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.”
Unclassified Summary of Assessment on COVID-19 Origin — ODNI (August 27 2021)
August 29 2021 — Thank God, it is finally Sunday! Those of you who have read the ODNI report on the COVID-19 Origin are probably confused. How can U. S. intelligence agencies reach different conclusions while working on the same information? Well, it is cultural! I thought a joke would explain a bit better the cultural differences among US Intel agencies. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY
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“A bad outcome is that at least part of the scientific community – supposedly the bulwark that protects us from propaganda – has bought into the false dichotomy of two “rival” hypotheses for Covid’s origins.”
Laura Spinney — Science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
After examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC
remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19.
All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.
Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors.
One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.
Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.
According to the ODNI report, “Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.”
What on earth does that mean? How can these intelligence agencies reach different conclusions while working on the same information?
For God sake, surely it is either a rabbit or a duck! Well, it depends how you look at it…
Quick note — Please, notice that the Washington Post has reported that: “The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.”
This is NOT true. The ODNI report does not talk about a “laboratory leak”, but a “laboratory-associated incident.” And that is definitely not the same thing!
“The competing messages, according to officials in attendance, also reflect cultural differences between the FBI and the CIA. The bureau, true to its law enforcement roots, wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something beyond all reasonable doubt. The CIA is more comfortable drawing inferences from behavior.”
The Washington Post — Russiagate (Dec. 10, 2016)
What are the differences between the FBI and the CIA?
On February 4 2019, CIA Molly Hale went digital. I could not resist firing the very first question on Twitter!
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I also noticed that someone had asked Molly an excellent question: What are the differences between the FBI and the CIA?
Molly replied on February 7 2019.
Great question. Lots of people get the CIA and FBI confused.
The CIA’s mission is to collect foreign intelligence overseas, where as the FBI addresses domestic issues.
The CIA does not have law enforcement authority and does not collect information concerning the domestic activities of American citizens.
(We do, however, have our own federal police force called the Special Protective Services who are responsible for protecting CIA employees and facilities).
The FBI, on the other hand, is the US government agency that investigates crimes on American soil and against American citizens abroad.
The FBI is a law enforcement agency and is responsible for intelligence matters in the United States, especially those directed against US citizens.
We do frequently work closely with the FBI, but our roles in keeping America safe are very different.
Hope that helps clarify things!
~ Molly
A Little Italian Vacation
Good answer! But, truth being told, the agencies also differ by their methodology. The following joke will make this point very clear.
FBI James Comey and CIA John Brennan decide to spend a much-needed vacation in Italy.
Both men are amateur archaeologists and share a deep passion for the history of the Roman Empire.
After having dug to a depth of 10 feet in his garden, Comey found traces of a copper wire dating back 2000 years and came to the conclusion that the Roman Empire already had a telephone network.
He quickly passed the information to a few Congressmen.
A few days later, Fox News and the New York Times reported the extraordinary finding.
Not to be outdone by the FBI, John Brennan dug to a depth of 20 feet and found absolutely nothing.
Not the kind of man to be easily discouraged, John keeps on digging: 30 feet, 40 feet… And still, there is nothing.
Brennan leaks his finding to the Washington Post.
A few days later, the Post reported the following story: “The CIA has concluded that the Roman Empire had already gone wireless 2000 years ago.”
PS — The CIA and the FBI are committed to solving the “Havana Syndrome” mystery. Both US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director William Burns have promised to get answers on who is responsible for these attacks on numerous U.S. spies and diplomats. Let us hope that the cultural differences between the FBI and the CIA do not interfere (too much) with the investigation. Time will tell…
“I will make it an extraordinarily high priority to get to the bottom of who is responsible for the Havana attacks.”
CIA Director William Burns
CIA John “I don’t do evidence” Brennan
REFERENCES
FBI and CIA give differing accounts to lawmakers on Russia’s motives in 2016 hacks — Washington Post
Fake News: FBI and DHS release ‘evidence’ of Russia Interference
Have a Question About the CIA? Ask Molly! — CIA Website
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Just Ask Molly Hale — The Differences Between the FBI and the CIA? [Joke]
The Differences Between the FBI and the CIA? [Joke]
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Sunday Jokes — The Cultural Differences among US Intel Agencies
Intel Today 