Earth Day 2021 — CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

“For 250 years most of the world suffered major economic and political unrest which could be directly or indirectly attributed to the climate of the neo-boreal era. Another Little Ice Age would cause hundreds of millions of deaths around the world and cause massive social unrest.”

CIA REPORT 1974

April 22 2020 — Today, the world celebrates the 50th anniversary of Earth Day! I thought I should take this opportunity to remind you that a 1974 Central Intelligence Agency report warned that “Earth’s climate is returning to that of the neo-boreal era… an era of drought, famine, and political unrest in the western world.” Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

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“Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.”

Sherman Kent — Founder of the Office of National Estimate (March 2021)

UPDATE (April 22 2021) — Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere.

The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere.

Every month, John Christy and Roy Spencer update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years.

The global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2021 was -0.01 deg. C, down substantially from the February, 2021 value of +0.20 deg. C.

The last issue of Global Trends (The Strategic Futures Group — National Intelligence Council — March 2021) has several long sections on Global Warming.

One of them — Calls for Geoengineering — caught my attention.

“As warming gets closer to exceeding the Paris Agreement goals, it is increasingly likely that states and nonstate actors will more aggressively research, test, and possibly deploy geoengineering measures—deliberate large-scale interventions in the earth’s natural systems— to try to counteract climate change. Current research is largely focused on solar radiation management (SRM), an effort to cool the planet by reflecting the suns energy back into space. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a form of SRM that sprays particles in the stratosphere to cause global dimming, has attracted funding by those who fear the worst of climate change. Proponents argue that the needed energy transformation will happen too slowly and that SAI can buy the planet time because it is technologically feasible and less expensive than mitigation.”

“Current research is almost entirely in computer models with academia, nongovernmental organizations, and private companies playing a leading role. However, there will be increased calls for countries to begin engaging in the dialogue and possibly take leadership to develop international agreements that could help set research standards, ensure transparency in live tests, determine the legal framework around if, how, and when to deploy SRM technologies, and monitor the effects. The possibly catastrophic unintended side effects are not well understood, and some scientists fear that SRM, while keeping temperatures down, would create unexpected and devastating changes in weather systems and rainfall patterns. Countries and nonstate actors deploying it alone will increase the risk of conflict and blowback, especially when others blame them for a disaster they believe was caused by geoengineering.”

I will certainly come back to discuss this issue. For now, the readers familiar wit this blog will have certainly noticed the word “blowback” which is straight from the CIA lexicon…

END of UPDATE

“Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to human and national security and force states to make hard choices and tradeoffs. The burdens will be unevenly distributed, heightening competition, contributing to instability, straining military readiness, and encouraging political movements.”

National Intelligence Council — Global Trends 2040 (March 2021)

The CIA report cited famines in the Soviet Union, drought in Latin America and flooding in the U.S. as examples of how global cooling was wreaking havoc on countries.

The CIA report states:

“As an example, Europe presently, with an annual mean temperature of 12°C (about 53°F), supports three persons per arable hectare.

If, however, the temperature declines 1°C only a little over two persons per hectare could be supported and more than 20 percent of the population could not be fed from domestic sources.

China now supports over seven persons per arable hectare; a shift of 1°C would mean it could only support four persons per hectare – a drop of over 43 percent.”

Global Trends 2017

Global Trends is the US Intelligence Community’s major assessment of the forces – and choices – shaping the world over the next two decades.

National Intelligence Council’s latest edition of the report, Global Trends “Paradox of Progress” was released January 9 2017, exploring trends and scenarios over the next 20 years

In the 2017 report,  the National Intelligence Council predicts that “more extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies.”

“Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow. Increased travel and poor health infrastructure will make infectious diseases harder to manage.

Over the longer term, global climatological stresses will change how and where people live, as well as the diseases they face.

Such stresses include sea-level rise, ocean acidification, permafrost and glacial melt, air quality degradation, changes in cloud cover, and sustained shifts in temperature and precipitation.

Current climate models project longterm increases in global average surface temperatures, but climate scientists warn that more sudden, dramatic shifts could be possible, given the complexity of the system and climate history.

Such shifts in the climate or climate-linked ecosystems could have dramatic economic and ecological consequences.”

The 2015 Mainau Nobel Conference

Sixty-five Nobel Prize winners attended the conference which famously produced a “Declaration on Climate Change”.

The mainstream media never reported that more than two dozens of attendees — nearly one half of them — actually refused to sign the declaration.

Therefore, you probably have never heard the dissenting opinion.

“I was horrified by what I found. Global warming really has become a new religion. Because you cannot discuss it. It’s not proper. It is like the Catholic Church.”

Dr Ivar Giaever — 1973 Physics Nobel Prize (2015 Mainau Nobel Conference)

Ivar Giaever: Global Warming Revisited (2015)

Dr Ivar Giaever — a former professor at the School of Engineering and School of Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute — received the 1973 physics Nobel for his work on quantum tunneling.

Giaever delivered his remarks at the 65th Nobel Laureate Conference in Lindau, Germany, which drew 65 recipients of the prize.

Giaever said his climate research was eye opening:

“I was horrified by what I found. Global warming really has become a new religion. Because you cannot discuss it. It’s not proper. It is like the Catholic Church.”

“When you have a theory and the theory does not agree with the experiment then you have to cut out the theory. You were wrong with the theory,” Giaever explained.

In 2011, Dr Giaever resigned from the American Physical Society because of it had issued the following statement:

“The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.”

Dr Giaever explained why he resigned over that statement.

First: nothing in science is incontrovertible.

Second: the ‘measured’ average temperature increase in 100 years or so, is 0.8 Kelvin.

Third: since the Physical Society claim it has become warmer, why is everything better than before?

Forth: the maximum average temperature ever measured was in 1998, 17 years ago. When will we stop wasting money on alternative energy?”

If only Richard Feynman was alive today!

 

REFERENCES

The CIA documents the global cooling research of the 1970’s

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures

“Deniers” in their midst – All is not well in Nobel Prize Land

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CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

One Year Ago — CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

Two Years Ago — CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

Earth Day 2020 — CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

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