2020 US Presidential Election — Trump Beats the Polls — Again [UPDATE II — Politico : “The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again.”]

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” [1]

November 4 2020 — Joe Biden just declared that he was on his way to the White House. The numbers tell a different story. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

RELATED POST: On This Day — “Dewey Defeats Truman” (November 2 1948) [2020]

UPDATE (November 6 2020) — Politico has a piece about the real losers of this extraordinary election: the polling companies.

When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, as some polls suggested would happen.

It wasn’t just the public polls that suggested Tuesday would be a big Democratic night. Much of the private polling on which both parties rely suggested Biden would win solidly, and they expected Democrats to benefit down the ballot.

Now that it hasn’t happened, pollsters are wondering whether their methods are fundamentally broken — or just unable to measure Trump’s support, specifically.

Just the facts — Five states have yet to be called: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.[Actually 6, but Alaska with 3 votes no longer matters.]

The race to 270 votes remains too close to call.

To become president, Biden (253) needs to win TWO out of Arizona(11), North Carolina(15), Nevada(6) and Georgia(16) or win Pennsylvania(20).

Trump (214) needs to win THREE out of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia AND win Pennsylvania.

Vote leads as of 5:30 a.m. ET Friday Nov. 6 2020:

• Georgia (99% in): Biden +917

• Nevada (89%): Biden +11,438

• Pennsylvania (94%): Trump +18,229

• Arizona (90%): Biden +47,052

Nothing is impossible at this point but a Trump’s victory is extremely unlikely.

By the way — In 2008, Barack Obama earned 69,498,516 votes in the presidential election, the most ever at the time…

Joe Biden crushed that record with an astonishing 73, 488, 248 votes. And yet, we still do not have a winner. Why?

In the 2020 election, Trump already earned 69,622,407 votes and there is probably more than one million of votes yet to be counted.

So no, Trump’s presidency was not an accident of History. And make no mistake. A victory for Biden will not close the parenthesis on Trump’s Foreign Policy.

Here is a safe prediction. Things will never be the same again.

UPDATE (November 5 2020) — Once again, Belgian Newspaper La Libre is dis-informing the readers.

In a series of news updates posted today, they claim that Trump could be re-elected if, and only if, he wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

This is complete non-sense. Allow me to explain.

RELATED POST: Belgium — World Top Arms Dealer Sentenced to 4 Years. Not Jailed for Now. [UPDATE : BELGA News Agency Launches Disinformation Campaign]

First, let us take a look at the data regarding these states.

State (#Votes) — Votes not counted (%) — Votes not counted (#) — Margin

Georgia (16) — 1 — 50,000 — 18,144 Trump

North Carolina (15) — 6 — 348,000 — 76,701 Trump

Pennsylvania (20) — 13 — 956,000 — 124,874 Trump

No one knows what will be the final result in these states. But for now, it is only reasonable to consider that Trump has a real chance to win these 3 states.

Currently, Trump has already 214 votes. With these 51 votes (16+15+20), that would bring the number to 265. Currently, Biden has 264 votes.

Although Trump is predicted to win Alaska, these 3 votes are not enough to reach the needed 270 votes.

Does Trump need to win Arizona? NOT AT ALL!

Let us take a look at the situation in Nevada!

Nevada(6) — 25% — 398,000 — 7,647 Biden

Obviously, Trump could win Nevada, and these six votes bring the total to 271. Full Stop.

MSM Double Standard

Associated Press (AP) has called Arizona for Biden with 80% of the expected vote counted and a margin of 130,000.

“The AP called the race at 2.50am EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up. With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump, with about 2.6m ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa county, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice-president.”

Right now, with 88% of the votes counted in Arizona, Biden’s lead is down to about 68,000 votes.

On the other hand, with 99 % of the votes counted in Georgia, AP does not call the race for Trump despite a margin of 18,144 votes.

Belgian Newspaper La Libre falsely claims that ‘only’ 96% of the votes have been counted!


November 4 2020 — As I woke up, MSM were reporting HUGE lead by Biden (209) over Trump (118).

A few hours ago, I sent this message to a few friends: “In truth, I think Trump WINS the election.” Explanation.

As I write this post, Trump appears to have already won 213 electoral votes. Thus, he needs 57 more votes. Let us look at these yet ‘uncalled’ states.

Trump is leading all of them.

State (#Votes) — Trump/Biden (%) — Votes counted (%)

North Carolina (15) — 50.1 / 48.7 — 94

Georgia (16) — 51.9 / 46.9 — 89

Wisconsin (10) — 51.2 / 47.3 — 88

Pennsylvania (20) — 56.7 / 42.1 — 64

Michigan (16) — 53.7 / 44.7 — 64

So, even if he loses one of these states, Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election.

UPDATE ( 8:00 am Eastern Time) — Whatever the final result may be, one conclusion is already obvious.

The widely predicted “blue wave” has not happened. This is a serious failure of mainstream opinion polling. How could these polls be so wrong once more?

The consensus of major national polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a stunning 8.4 percentage point lead on November 1. Reality sunk in the minute Florida started reporting its election results, indicating a narrow victory for the Donald in what is legally his home state.

The consensus of Florida state polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight suggested that Biden would cruise to victory there, as in the rest of the country. How could they be so wrong – again?” [Why the polls were wrong – and will never be right again — SMH]

This table shows an estimate for the amount of votes remaining to be counted in each of these 5 states, and the number of votes separating the current leading candidate from the second-placed party.

Wisconsin – 5% – 173,000 – 20,748 – Biden

Georgia – 6% – 301,000 – 102,823 – Trump

North Carolina – 6% – 348,000 – 76,712 – Trump

Michigan – 10% – 540,000 – 12,012 – Trump

Pennsylvania – 36% – 2,992,000 – 675,012 – Trump

Biden is now winning Wisconsin and the margin in Michigan is fast shrinking.

Stay tuned!


[1] The remark has been attributed to Niels Bohr, Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. But it seems it originates from a debate in the Danish parliament in 1937/1938.


2020 US presidential election — Trump Beats the Polls Again

2020 US Presidential Election — Trump Beats the Polls Again [UPDATE — Belgian Media Launch Disinformation Campaign]

2020 US Presidential Election — Trump Beats the Polls — Again [UPDATE II — Politico : “The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again.” ]

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