“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” [1]

November 4 2020 — Joe Biden just declared that he was on his way to the White House. The numbers tell a different story. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

RELATED POST: On This Day — “Dewey Defeats Truman” (November 2 1948) [2020]

As I woke up, MSM were reporting HUGE lead by Biden (209) over Trump (118).

A few hours ago, I sent this message to a few friends: “In truth, I think Trump WINS the election.” Explanation.

As I write this post, Trump appears to have already won 213 electoral votes. Thus, he needs 57 more votes. Let us look at these yet ‘uncalled’ states.

Trump is leading all of them.

State (#Votes) — Trump/Biden (%) — Votes counted (%)

North Carolina (15) — 50.1 / 48.7 — 94

Georgia (16) — 51.9 / 46.9 — 89

Wisconsin (10) — 51.2 / 47.3 — 88

Pennsylvania (20) — 56.7 / 42.1 — 64

Michigan (16) — 53.7 / 44.7 — 64

So, even if he loses one of these states, Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election.

UPDATE ( 8:00 am Eastern Time) — Whatever the final result may be, one conclusion is already obvious.

The widely predicted “blue wave” has not happened. This is a serious failure of mainstream opinion polling. How could these polls be so wrong once more?

“The consensus of major national polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a stunning 8.4 percentage point lead on November 1. Reality sunk in the minute Florida started reporting its election results, indicating a narrow victory for the Donald in what is legally his home state.

The consensus of Florida state polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight suggested that Biden would cruise to victory there, as in the rest of the country. How could they be so wrong – again?” [Why the polls were wrong – and will never be right again — SMH]

This table shows an estimate for the amount of votes remaining to be counted in each of these 5 states, and the number of votes separating the current leading candidate from the second-placed party.

Wisconsin – 5% – 173,000 – 20,748 – Biden

Georgia – 6% – 301,000 – 102,823 – Trump

North Carolina – 6% – 348,000 – 76,712 – Trump

Michigan – 10% – 540,000 – 12,012 – Trump

Pennsylvania – 36% – 2,992,000 – 675,012 – Trump

Biden is now winning Wisconsin and the margin in Michigan is fast shrinking.

Stay tuned!

REFERENCES

[1] The remark has been attributed to Niels Bohr, Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. But it seems it originates from a debate in the Danish parliament in 1937/1938.

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2020 US presidential election — Trump Beats the Polls Again