The Heroes & Villains of the Montreal Protocol

“The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is effective and working. Since the entry into force of this multilateral environmental agreement, there has been tremendous progress in global efforts to repair the ozone layer. As a consequence, there are now early signs that we are on the road to recovery of this precious life-support system.”

Kofi Annan — September 16 2006

“If the emissions were to persist, then we could imagine that healing of the ozone layer, that recovery date, could be delayed by a decade.”

Dr Stephen Montzka — US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) — May 2018

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair — American writer (Pulitzer Prize 1943)

Data from an NOAA study shows that emissions of CFC-11 — as calculated using two different models — rose after 2012, even though production was supposedly phased out. (NOAA)

The Montreal Protocol is an extraordinary success and a testimony of what humankind can achieve when there is a universal will to fight for its survival.

According to computer simulations, the recovery of the ozone layer in the mid-latitudes and the Arctic was anticipated around 2050 — five years later than previously estimated — while in Antarctica, recovery is expected by about 2065, about 15 years later than the previous estimate.

However, according to a recent study, published in Nature on May 16 2018, the atmospheric level of trichlorofluoromethane — also known as CFC-11 — is not declining as quickly as expected. And this is bad news because CFC-11 is a ozone-depleting chemical banned by the Montreal Protocol.

Scientists with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration believe that someone is releasing thousands of tons of CFC-11 in the atmosphere.  Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today Continue reading

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INTEL TODAY — Happy Anniversary!

“History is moving pretty quickly these days, and the heroes and villains keep on changing parts.”

Ian Fleming

On July 14 2016, Intel Today published its first post. The story was about Russian Colonel Aleksandr Poteyev. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today Continue reading

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One Year Ago — Dutch Expand the Powers of Intelligence Agencies, Pass “Tapping Law”

“Traditionally, Senate concerns itself with the quality of legislation, compliance with the constitution and international agreements, and the question whether citizens’ rights are upheld. The dragnet surveillance bill fails on all counts.”

Bits of Freedom

“Look at what Facebook, Google, Twitter and Tinder know about you, and consider whether you’re worried about the right things. This law is for the safety of the Netherlands and for the Dutch people… I am voting in favour.”

Rob Bertholee  — Head of National Intelligence Agency

aivd_zoetermeer

AIVD Headquarters — Zoetermeer

July 12 2017 — On Wednesday, the Dutch Senate passed the bill for the new Intelligence and Security Services Act. The previous law restricted bulk or untargeted collection to wireless communications only, so cable access was only allowed for targeted and individualized interception. Keep in mind that this law applies to both foreign and domestic operations. UPDATE — On March 21 2018, Dutch voters had to decide whether spy agencies should have the power to install bulk taps on Internet traffic. They voted by a majority of 49.5% to 46.5% against the new legislation. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY Continue reading

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One Year Ago — Bad Science & Bad Scientists : IRA suspect Issues Apology for the Birmingham Pub Bombings

“Exactly the same forensic scientists who produced the wrongful conviction of Guiseppe Conlon, the Maguire family and of Danny McNamee, and had been stood down for the role they played. Yet here they were. Without them, there wouldn’t have been a prosecution, far less a conviction in Lockerbie. (…) What shocked me most was that I thought that all that had been gone through on Guildford and Birmingham, the one thing that had been achieved was that nobody would be convicted again on bad science. But yet in the Lockerbie case, it isn’t just the same bad science, it is the same bad scientists.”

Gareth Peirce — Solicitor for the Guildford Four and the Birmingham Six

In the Name of the Father is a 1993 Irish-British-American biographical courtroom drama film co-written and directed by Jim Sheridan. It is based on the true life story of the Guildford Four, four people falsely convicted of the 1974 IRA’s Guildford pub bombings, which killed four off-duty British soldiers and a civilian. Gareth Peirce (Emma Thompson), a campaigning lawyer who has been investigating the case on behalf of Giuseppe, has a breakthrough when she tries to access Giuseppe’s file and is able to look instead at Gerry’s. She finds vital police documents in the file that are marked “Not to be shown to the Defence”. During the course of their appeal, the production of these documents leads to a triumphant scene in court when Peirce produces the evidence that the police have been lying throughout about the existence of a witness who had provided Conlon with an alibi during their initial investigation. This leads to the overturning of the verdict and immediate release of the Guildford Four.

A self-confessed IRA bomb maker who has said he was part of the group responsible for the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings has issued an apology. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY Continue reading

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The Rise of the CFC — An Atmospheric Spy Thriller [UPDATE: Shame on China]

“It appears that emissions of CFC-11 have increased in recent years, which is quite a surprise given the fact that production has been phased out — reportedly.  I think it’s the most surprising thing I’ve seen in my 27 years of making measurements of trace gases in the atmosphere.”

Stephen Montzka — NOAA scientist 

“We were absolutely gobsmacked to find that [Chinese]  companies very openly confirmed using CFC-11 while acknowledging it was illegal. The fact that they were so blasé about it, the fact that they told us very openly how pervasive it is in the market, these were shocking findings for us.”

Avipsa Mahapatra — Environmental Investigations Agency

Data from an NOAA study shows that emissions of CFC-11 — as calculated using two different models — rose after 2012, even though production was supposedly phased out.  (NOAA)

A real life Dr EVIL is producing thousands of tons of a banned chemical, threatening the recovery of Earth’s badly damaged ozone layer. Scientists believe that industrial amounts of CFC-11 are illegally produced ‘somewhere’ in the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps in Eastern Asia since 2012. Notice the irony. Porton Down and OPCW scientists can trace the origin of a few nano-grams of ‘novichok’ to a Russian laboratory in just a few days. But, after 6 years, nobody has identified the production site(s) of thousands of tons of a life-threatening banned chemical. UPDATE (July 9 2018) — The culprits have been identified; they are Chinese foam companies. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today Continue reading

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On This Day — French Spooks Sink the Rainbow Warrior — July 10 1985

“The truth is cruel. Agents of the French secret service sank this boat. They were acting on orders.”

Prime Minister Laurent Fabius — September 22 1985

“I think all military people who serve their countries can find themselves in situations they hadn’t wished for.”

Christine Cabon — Former DGSE Officer

Fernando Pereira died aboard the Rainbow Warrior.

The sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — codenamed Opération Satanique — was a bombing operation by the “Action” branch of the French foreign intelligence services — La Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE) — carried out on July 10 1985. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY Continue reading

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People’s Mujahedin of Iran : From Terrorist Group to US Best Friends

“There is a viable opposition to the rule of the ayatollahs, and that opposition is centred in this room today. The behaviour and objectives of the regime are not going to change, and therefore the only solution is to change the regime itself.”

John Bolton — US national security adviser  [MeK Conference 2017]

“In the seven years I lived in the country, I saw a great deal of criticism towards the ayatollahs but I never met a person who thought the MeK should, or could, present a viable alternative.”

Jason Rezaian — Iranian-American Washington Post journalist

Donald Trump’s attorney, Rudy Giuliani, addresses exiled People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK) supporters in Paris, France, June 30, 2018

The People’s Mujahedin of Iran [PMOI in English or MeK in Farsi] was once officially listed as a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union. Now, the Trump Administration wants them to run Iran. How was MEK removed from these terrorist organizations list? They simply bought their way out! Flashback. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today Continue reading

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One Year Ago — Sir John Chilcot: “Tony Blair Not Straight With UK Over Iraq”

“When I briefed Tony Blair, it was quite clear that he felt this was a necessity, that there was a just cause, that we had to do something about this. How he portrayed that politically… I do not think he played it very well.”

Major General Tim Cross

Sir John Chilcot

July 7 2017 — Sir John Chilcot has concluded that Tony Blair was not “straight with the nation” about his decisions in the run up to the Iraq War. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY Continue reading

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Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson : “On Iran, Trump Follows the Iraq War Playbook”

“When we had made a judgment that we have to sort of decimate the top of the Baath leadership, none of us understood that this was going … to go down to every last schoolteacher. Every one of them had to be a member of the Baath Party just to get a job. Doesn’t mean they were bad. If you’re going to take out the top, “decimation” is a good word. We were going to decimate the top, the people who were closest to Saddam Hussein, and reconstitute the rest of the society.We didn’t do that with the military; we didn’t do that with the Baath Party, and [we] created a massive vacuum with respect to security and stability and bureaucracy. And that vacuum was filled by the insurgency. I think it was a major, massive strategic error.”

Colin Powell — March 2013

Colin Powell has called his 2003 speech to the United Nations, laying out the Bush administration’s rationale for war in Iraq, a “blot” on his record. The speech set out to detail Iraq’s weapons program, but as the intelligence would later confirm, that program was non-existent. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today Continue reading

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One Year Ago — LOCKERBIE : SCCRC Press Release on Megrahi Application

“The Lockerbie trial is “the most disgraceful miscarriage of justice in Scotland for 100 years. Every lawyer who has read the judgment says ‘this is nonsense’. It is nonsense.”

Robert Black QC FRSE –Professor Emeritus of Scots Law in the University of Edinburgh and best known as the “Architect of the Lockerbie Trial”

Mandela visiting Megrahi — aka the ‘Lockerbie bomber’ — in prison. Many thanks to my friend John Ashston who took the picture.

July 4 2017 — The Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission confirmed today that it has received a new application to review the conviction in the case of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al-Megrahi. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY Continue reading

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