“We continue to closely examine anomalous health incidents [Havana Syndrome], particularly in areas we have identified as requiring additional research and analysis.”

ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT 2024

March 20 2024 — The ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT reflects the collective insights of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). The 40-page long report is certainly worth reading. A few items have caught my attention. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

RELATED POST : Five Years Ago — And thus a new syndrome was born… (Havana Syndrome – October 3 2017) [UPDATE : A Conversation with Nicky Woolf]

According to the introduction:

“This assessment focuses on the most direct, serious threats to the United States primarily during the next year. The order of the topics presented in this assessment does not necessarily indicate their relative importance or the magnitude of the threats in the view of the IC. All require a robust intelligence response, including those where a near-term focus may help head off greater threats in the future. Information available as of 22 January was used in the preparation of this assessment.”

The report briefly discusses the following issues:

I will soon come back on these topics in following posts but I will already mention the conclusions regarding the Havana Syndrome mystery.

We continue to closely examine anomalous health incidents (AHIs), particularly in areas we have identified as requiring additional research and analysis. Most IC agencies have concluded that it is very unlikely a foreign adversary is responsible for the reported AHIs. IC agencies have varying confidence levels because we still have gaps given the challenges collecting on foreign adversaries—as we do on many issues involving them.

As part of its review, the IC identified critical assumptions surrounding the initial AHIs reported in Cuba from 2016 to 2018, which framed the IC’s understanding of this phenomenon, but were not borne out by subsequent medical and technical analysis. In light of this and the evidence that points away from a foreign adversary, causal mechanism, or unique syndromes linked to AHIs, IC agencies assess those symptoms reported by U.S. personnel probably were the result of factors that did not involve a foreign adversary.

These findings do not call into question the very real experiences and symptoms that our colleagues and their family members have reported. We continue to prioritize our work on such incidents, allocating resources and expertise across the government, pursuing multiple lines of inquiry and seeking information to fill the gaps we have identified.

Two new medical studies, published on Monday, have found that US government officials suffering from Havana syndrome symptoms do not show any discernible physical damage or alteration.

One of the studies examined brain imaging, while the other looked at blood biomarkers and clinical assessments of hearing, vision, hand-eye coordination, cognitive ability and balance.

“Neither study, detected any significant differences between a control group, and about 80 current or former US government officials suffering from a cluster of symptoms, often debilitating, known as Havana syndrome, named for the site of the first recorded cases among diplomats and intelligence officials in 2015.” [The Guardian]

On October 2, 2017, I coined the expression ‘Havana Syndrome’ and I suggested that a microwave exposure would better explain the victims’ reported symptoms than a secret acoustic weapon.

In a following post published in late December 2017, I told you that I would not expect any brain tissue damage resulting from microwave espionage.

Thus, when early US Medical tests revealed that the brains’ victims have change in their ‘white tracts’, I was very suspicious.

However, correlation does not imply causation, and there was a very simple explanation for this finding, if it was real.

Here is what I wrote (December 26, 2017):

“This final point is a bit puzzling but keep in mind that there is no way to know if these changes are actually related to the attacks or if they were caused by past experiences.

This is an important point considering that it is known that most — if not all — US diplomats who suffer from the Havana syndrome are actually spies who may have had a career in the military and may have been exposed to explosions for instance.”

Stay tuned!

“People who were told by trusted authorities that they suffered brain damage from a secret weapon will likely dismiss the NIH report as a government cover-up. It is, however, an excellent scientific study, with conclusions that are well supported by data, and the study will be viewed as highly credible by scientists.”

Douglas Fields
University of Maryland neuroscientist

REFERENCES

ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
(February 5, 2024)

People with ‘Havana Syndrome’ Show No Brain Damage or Medical Illness — Scientific American (MARCH 18, 2024)

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ODNI — ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT 2024

“The possibility of attack by microwaves still gives me pause. The technology exists to give someone a frightening but not acutely damaging experience by inducing mechanical disturbances to the vestibular system using pulsed microwaves.”

Kenneth Foster
University of Pennsylvania health physicist
March 2024