“Revenge is a dish Putin prefers served cold.”
CIA director William Burns
August 26 2023 — Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed in Russia. Not surprisingly, MSM are quoting an army of experts who already ‘know’ what happened and who did it. Perhaps, this is a good opportunity to apply some of the lessons we have learned. Let us apply the “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH) developed by CIA Richards J. Heuer. I asked ChatGPT to explain how one might approach this case using the ACH method. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY
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“Perhaps it is because I was at Yaroslav airport on 7 Sept 2011 when a YAK-42 crashed with the players and coaches of the Lokomotiv ice hockey team (gross maintenance error), that I think that Prigozhin’s Embraer also crashed because of poor maintenance. He was not Putin’s enemy.”
Edward N Luttwak
The “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH), developed by Richards J. Heuer, is a structured analytical technique used to evaluate multiple hypotheses when faced with complex and uncertain information.
Heuer was a former CIA officer and his work has been influential in the field of intelligence analysis and decision-making. The ACH method provides a systematic framework for assessing various hypotheses in order to make more informed and rational decisions.
The ACH process involves several steps:
- Identification of Hypotheses: List all possible hypotheses or explanations for a given situation.
- Evidentiary Base: Identify the evidence or information available for each hypothesis. This could include facts, data, expert opinions, and other sources.
- Components and Weights: Break down each hypothesis into its constituent components or factors. Assign weights to each piece of evidence based on its reliability and relevance.
- Contradictions and Consistencies: Compare the evidence for each hypothesis. Look for contradictions and consistencies. Consider the overall fit of the evidence with each hypothesis.
- Alternative Explanations: Examine alternative explanations for the evidence. This helps to challenge assumptions and uncover biases.
- Testing Hypotheses: Consider how additional information or evidence could be gathered to test the competing hypotheses. Identify the gaps in information and potential sources of new data.
- Updating Weights: As new information becomes available, update the weights assigned to each piece of evidence and reassess the hypotheses.
- Selecting the Best Hypothesis: Based on the analysis, select the hypothesis that best fits the available evidence and is the most coherent explanation.
The ACH method encourages analysts to be aware of cognitive biases, to consider multiple perspectives, and to weigh evidence objectively. It’s particularly useful when dealing with complex, ambiguous, or contradictory information. The process helps in avoiding premature conclusions and promotes a more comprehensive and rigorous decision-making process.
Applying the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the presumed death of Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner private military company, would involve systematically evaluating various hypotheses surrounding his disappearance or demise.
Using Artificial Intelligence — I asked ChatGPT to provide a hypothetical example of how one might approach this situation using the ACH method. Here is the answer:
Step 1: Identify Hypotheses
List possible hypotheses regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin’s presumed death:
- Natural Causes: Yevgeny Prigozhin died due to natural causes.
- Assassination: Yevgeny Prigozhin was assassinated by a rival group or intelligence agency.
- Accident: Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved in an accident leading to his death.
- Faked Death: Yevgeny Prigozhin faked his own death for strategic or personal reasons.
- Capture/Imprisonment: Yevgeny Prigozhin was captured or imprisoned by a government or entity.
Step 2: Evidentiary Base
Gather available evidence for each hypothesis, such as news reports, intelligence, eyewitness accounts, social media activity, and official statements.
Step 3: Components and Weights
Break down each hypothesis into components and assign weights to the evidence. For example, in the case of the “Assassination” hypothesis:
- Intelligence reports indicating increased chatter among rival groups: High weight.
- Suspicious movement of individuals near Prigozhin’s last known location: Medium weight.
- Lack of any public appearances or communications from Prigozhin: Medium weight.
- Absence of any official confirmation of his death: Low weight.
Step 4: Contradictions and Consistencies
Compare the evidence for each hypothesis. Look for contradictions and consistencies within the evidence. For instance, if the “Natural Causes” hypothesis has strong medical records supporting it but conflicts with eyewitness accounts of suspicious activity, note those discrepancies.
Step 5: Alternative Explanations
Consider alternative explanations for the evidence. Could any evidence be misinterpreted or biased? Are there other factors that might influence the perception of events?
Step 6: Testing Hypotheses
Identify gaps in the available information and suggest ways to gather additional data. This could involve further intelligence gathering, seeking out new sources, or exploring technological surveillance methods.
Step 7: Updating Weights
As new information emerges, adjust the weights assigned to each piece of evidence and reassess the hypotheses accordingly.
Step 8: Selecting the Best Hypothesis
Based on the analysis, select the hypothesis that aligns best with the available evidence, has the fewest contradictions, and is the most coherent explanation for Yevgeny Prigozhin’s presumed death.
Never forget: Stay open to new information!
Remember that the ACH method doesn’t provide a definitive answer but rather helps in making a more informed and reasoned decision based on the available evidence and hypotheses. It’s important to stay open to new information and adjust the analysis as the situation evolves.
I hope that the reader will realize how complex the analysis can be and how much resources (time, energy, …) it takes for an analyst to provide just a preliminary assessment. No real expert will offer an opinion before at least several days, possibly several weeks.
Think for yourself! Can you go through ‘Step 1: Identify Hypotheses‘? Stay tuned!
REFERENCES
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash — BBC
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ACH — Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead [Introduction : Getting some help from AI]
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